Bonus Bet Value Calculator — What Are Bonus Bets Actually Worth?
Betting bonuses look bigger than they are. Because bonus bets don't return the stake and sports betting deposit bonuses carry rollover requirements, the real cash value of a promo is well below its face value. Use this free, educational calculator to estimate the expected value of bonus bets, deposit matches, and profit boosts — and see why the odds you choose matter more than the size of the offer.
21+ only. Educational tool — not betting advice.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Promo availability, terms, and playthrough rules vary by state — always read the offer's terms in your jurisdiction. Results are expected values under simplified no-vig assumptions, not predictions or guarantees of any outcome.
Expected cash value
$142.86
Conversion rate
71.4%
Face value
$200.00
Conversion rate by odds — longer odds keep more of the face value
Bonus bets don't return the stake, so a short-odds favorite wastes most of the credit. Math: expected value = amount × (decimal − 1) × implied win probability, using fair (no-vig) odds — a simplified assumption; the book's vig makes real-world value slightly lower.
Worked hedge example
Place the $200.00 bonus bet at +250. On another book or market, bet about $272.73 of cash on the opposite side at -120. Either outcome finishes with roughly $227.27 — about a 114% expected conversion of the bonus, before vig differences and bet limits.
Hedge stake formula: bonus × (decimal − 1) ÷ hedge decimal.
Go deeper: the math behind promo value
These two books cover expected value, hedging, and how sportsbooks price promotions — the exact concepts this calculator runs on.
The Logic of Sports Betting
Ed Miller & Matthew Davidow on how books set lines, where the vig hides, and how promos are priced.
Check price →The Everything Guide to Sports Betting
A beginner-friendly walkthrough of bankroll math, odds formats, and evaluating bonus offers.
Check price →We may earn a commission if you buy through these links, at no extra cost to you. Disclosure
Frequently Asked Questions
- What are bonus bets actually worth?
- Far less than face value. Because the stake is not returned on a win, a bonus bet is typically worth about 50–75% of its face value in expected cash, depending on the odds you place it at. A $200 bonus bet used on a +250 underdog has an expected value of roughly $143, while the same credit on a -200 favorite is worth only about $67. This calculator shows the exact conversion rate at any odds.
- What is the difference between a bonus bet and a deposit match?
- A bonus bet is site credit you wager once — if it wins you keep the winnings but not the stake. A deposit match adds bonus funds to your account that usually carry a playthrough (rollover) requirement, meaning you must wager the amount several times before withdrawing. Bonus bets are valued by their conversion rate at your chosen odds; deposit matches lose expected value to the house edge on every required rollover bet, so high playthrough multipliers can erode most of the bonus.
- Why do longer odds convert bonus bets better?
- Because the stake is never returned. At short odds most of a winning payout is the returned stake — which a bonus bet forfeits — so very little value is left. At longer odds the profit portion dominates the payout, so more of the face value survives. Mathematically the conversion rate is 1 − 1/decimal odds: about 33% at -200, 50% at +100, and 71% at +250 (using fair, no-vig odds).
- Do bonus bets return the stake if they win?
- No — at virtually all U.S. sportsbooks bonus bets are stake-not-returned. If you place a $100 bonus bet at +200 and it wins, you receive $200 in winnings, not $300. This is the single biggest reason bonus bets are worth less than face value, and why promo terms always describe them as site credit rather than cash.