Parlay Betting Strategy: The Complete Guide

Parlays can turn small bets into big wins—but they're also a fast way to lose money. Here's how to use them strategically.

What is a Parlay?

A parlay combines 2+ bets into one wager. All bets must win for the parlay to cash.

Example 3-leg parlay:

• Chiefs -7 (-110)
• Lakers ML (-150)
• Over 48.5 (-110)

If all 3 win: Big payout (~6:1) If 1 loses: Entire bet loses

Parlay Payouts

Standard parlay odds (all legs at -110):

Key insight: The more legs, the worse the odds.

Why Parlays Are -EV (Negative Expected Value)

Math example:

• Each leg has 50% chance to win (at -110 odds)
• 3-leg parlay: 50% × 50% × 50% = 12.5% chance
• True odds: 7:1 (+700)
• Sportsbook pays: 6:1 (+600)
• You get shorted by 1 unit of value

Verdict: Parlays are designed to make the sportsbook money.

When to Use Parlays

1. Small Bet, Big Entertainment

Turn $5 into $500? Parlays are fun for lottery-ticket plays.

Strategy:

• Max $5-10 per parlay
• Accept it's for entertainment
• Don't expect to profit long-term

2. Correlated Parlays (Advanced)

Some bets are correlated (one outcome makes another more likely).

Example: Same-game parlay

• Chiefs -7
• Over 50.5 points
• Mahomes over 275 passing yards

All three are correlated: If Chiefs cover by 7+, the game is likely high-scoring, and Mahomes likely threw for 275+.

Sportsbooks adjust odds for correlated parlays, but sometimes miss value.

3. Heavy Favorite Moneylines

Parlay multiple heavy favorites to get better odds.

Example:

• Ravens -500 ML
• 49ers -400 ML
• Eagles -600 ML

Straight bets: Need to risk $1,500 total to win $300 3-leg parlay: Risk $100 to win ~$120

Risk: If 1 favorite loses, entire parlay busts.

Parlay Strategies That Work

Correlated Same-Game Parlays

Goal: Find outcomes that move together.

NFL example:

• Home underdog (+6.5)
• Under 44.5 points
• Opposing QB under passing yards

Logic: If the underdog covers, it's likely a low-scoring game where the opposing QB struggled.

NBA example:

• Star player over points
• Team over total points
• Opponent under total points

Round Robin Parlays

Bet multiple parlays at once to hedge.

Example: 3 bets (A, B, C) Round Robin creates 3 two-leg parlays:

• A + B
• A + C
• B + C

If 2 of 3 win: You profit (instead of losing entire parlay)

Cost: 3x the stake (betting 3 parlays)

Parlay + Hedge Strategy

Parlay most legs, then hedge the last one.

Example:

• 5-leg parlay, first 4 legs win
• Last leg: Chiefs -3
• Hedge: Bet Eagles +3 straight

Result: Guarantee profit regardless of outcome

2-3 Leg Parlays Only

House edge comparison:

• 2-leg: ~5%
• 3-leg: ~7%
• 6-leg: ~15%
• 10-leg: ~25%

Strategy: Stick to 2-3 legs max for better value.

Parlay Mistakes to Avoid

❌ Adding "free money" legs (e.g., -1000 favorites)

• Destroys parlay value
• If it's "free money," bet it straight

❌ Parlaying uncorrelated bets

• Example: NFL game + random NBA game
• No edge, just multiplying -EV bets

❌ Chasing losses with big parlays

• 10-leg parlays rarely hit
• Dig deeper hole faster

❌ Betting your entire bankroll on 1 parlay

• Variance will crush you
• Even good parlays lose >50% of the time

❌ Not shopping odds

• Parlay payouts vary by sportsbook
• Check multiple books before betting

Parlay Alternatives (Better EV)

Straight Bets

Bet 3 games separately instead of parlaying:

• Win 2/3 = small profit
• Parlay needs 3/3 = all or nothing

Long-term: Straight bets are more profitable

Teasers (NFL)

Adjust the spread in your favor.

6-point teaser:

• Chiefs -7 becomes Chiefs -1
• Under 50 becomes Under 56

Better odds than parlays for correlated NFL bets.

Round Robins

Hedge against 1-leg losses.

Downside: Costs more (betting multiple parlays) Upside: Profit if most legs win

Parlay Insurance Promos

Some sportsbooks offer parlay insurance.

Example: "4+ leg parlay, if 1 leg loses, get refund up to $25"

Strategy:

• Use max stake ($25)
• Build 4-5 leg parlays
• Get refund if you barely miss

Still -EV, but less painful.

Real Parlay ROI Expectations

Casual bettor:

• 2-leg parlays: ~-5% ROI
• 3-leg parlays: ~-7% ROI
• 5+ leg parlays: ~-15% ROI

Experienced bettor (correlated parlays):

• 2-3 leg correlated: ~-2% ROI
• Same-game parlays: 0% to -5% ROI

Verdict: Parlays are -EV, but can be fun in moderation.

Parlay Bankroll Management

Max allocation:

• 1-5% of bankroll on parlays per week
• Smaller stakes than straight bets

Example:

• Bankroll: $1,000
• Straight bet unit: $20 (2%)
• Parlay bet unit: $5-10 (0.5-1%)

Why smaller? Higher variance, lower win rate.

Sample Parlay Strategy

Weekly allocation:

• 80% straight bets
• 15% 2-3 leg parlays
• 5% "fun" parlays (5+ legs, $5 max)

Goal:

• Profit from straight bets
• Occasional parlay wins offset vig
• Lottery tickets for entertainment

The Parlay Paradox

Sportsbooks love parlays because:

• Higher house edge
• Bettors overestimate win probability
• Emotional attachment to big payouts

You should mostly avoid parlays because:

• Math doesn't work in your favor
• Straight bets are more profitable
• Higher win rate = better bankroll stability

BUT: Parlays aren't evil in moderation. Small-stake, correlated parlays can be fun and occasionally profitable.

The Bottom Line

Parlays are -EV, but not a scam. They're a calculated house edge product.

Use them wisely:

• 2-3 legs max (usually)
• Correlated outcomes only
• Small stakes (1% of bankroll max)
• For entertainment, not profit

For profit: Stick to straight bets, shop odds, and grind 54-55% win rate.

⚠️ Must be 21+ to gamble. Please gamble responsibly.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) or visit ncpgambling.org.