Bankroll Management: The Key to Long-Term Betting Success

Bankroll management is more important than picking winners. Here's how to protect your money.

What is a Bankroll?

Your bankroll is the total amount of money dedicated to sports betting.

Key rules:

• Separate from rent, bills, savings
• Money you can afford to lose
• Never bet with borrowed money
• Keep it in a separate account

Example:

• You have $5,000 saved
• Comfortable losing $500 max
• Bankroll = $500

The 1-5% Rule

Never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on one bet.

Bankroll	1% Unit	3% Unit	5% Unit
$500	$5	$15	$25
$1,000	$10	$30	$50
$2,500	$25	$75	$125
$5,000	$50	$150	$250

Why this matters:

• Protects against losing streaks
• Allows for variance
• Prevents going broke quickly

Unit Sizing Strategy

Fixed Unit (Beginner-Friendly)

Pick 1 unit size (1-2% of bankroll) and stick to it.

Example:

• Bankroll: $1,000
• Unit: $20 (2%)
• Bet $20 on every game

Pros:

• Simple
• Consistent
• Hard to mess up

Cons:

• Doesn't account for confidence level
• Doesn't grow with bankroll

Confidence-Based Units

Adjust bet size based on confidence.

System:

• High confidence: 3-4 units
• Medium confidence: 2 units
• Low confidence: 1 unit

Example:

• Unit: $10
• High confidence game: $30-40
• Medium confidence game: $20
• Low confidence game: $10

Pros:

• Maximizes edge on best bets
• Flexible

Cons:

• Can overestimate confidence
• Requires discipline

The Kelly Criterion

Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula for optimal bet sizing.

The Formula

Kelly % = (BP - Q) / B

Where:

• B = Decimal odds (e.g., +200 = 3.0)
• P = Win probability (your edge)
• Q = Lose probability (1 - P)

Example Calculation

Bet: Cowboys +200 (3.0 decimal odds) Your edge: 40% win probability

Kelly % = (3.0 × 0.4 - 0.6) / 3.0 Kelly % = (1.2 - 0.6) / 3.0 Kelly % = 0.6 / 3.0 = 0.2 = 20%

Bet 20% of bankroll?! That's insane!

Fractional Kelly (Recommended)

Full Kelly is too aggressive. Use 1/4 Kelly or 1/2 Kelly.

1/4 Kelly:

• 20% Kelly = bet 5% of bankroll
• Safer, less variance
• Slower growth

1/2 Kelly:

• 20% Kelly = bet 10% of bankroll
• Moderate risk
• Decent growth

Most pros use 1/4 to 1/2 Kelly.

Dealing With Losing Streaks

Expected Losing Streaks

Even with a 55% win rate:

• 5-game losing streak: ~35% chance per 100 bets
• 7-game losing streak: ~15% chance per 100 bets
• 10-game losing streak: ~4% chance per 100 bets

Takeaway: Losing streaks are normal. Don't panic.

Stop-Loss Limits

Set daily/weekly limits to prevent chasing.

Examples:

• Max 10% of bankroll lost per week
• Max 3% of bankroll lost per day
• After 3 losses, take a break

Never Chase Losses

Chasing = increasing bet size after losses

Why it fails:

• Emotional, not logical
• Depletes bankroll faster
• Leads to tilt

Instead:

• Stick to your unit size
• Take a break
• Review your strategy

Growing Your Bankroll

Adjust Units as Bankroll Grows

Don't keep betting $10 units when you have $5,000.

Strategy:

• Recalculate units monthly
• Grow units as bankroll grows
• Shrink units if bankroll shrinks

Example:

• Month 1: $1,000 bankroll, $20 units (2%)
• Month 3: $1,500 bankroll, $30 units (2%)
• Month 6: $2,000 bankroll, $40 units (2%)

Withdraw Profits Periodically

Don't let your entire bankroll sit in sportsbooks.

Strategy:

• Withdraw 25-50% of profits monthly
• Keep bankroll replenished
• Reduce risk of tilt-betting

Example:

• Start: $1,000 bankroll
• End of month: $1,300 bankroll
• Withdraw: $150 (50% of $300 profit)
• New bankroll: $1,150

Variance and Bankroll Size

Minimum Bankroll for Strategy

Conservative bettor (1% units):

• Need 100+ units for safety
• Example: $1,000 bankroll = $10 units

Aggressive bettor (3-5% units):

• Need 50+ units
• Example: $500 bankroll = $10 units

Why:

• Absorb losing streaks
• Avoid going broke on variance

Risk of Ruin

Chance of losing your entire bankroll based on edge and bet sizing.

Example:

• 55% win rate
• 2% unit size
• Risk of ruin: <1%

Same edge, 10% unit size:

• Risk of ruin: ~25%

Takeaway: Smaller units = lower risk of ruin

Advanced Bankroll Strategies

Separate Bankrolls by Sport

Why:

• Track performance by sport
• Identify strengths/weaknesses
• Avoid tilt-betting across sports

Example:

• $1,000 total
• $400 NFL
• $300 NBA
• $300 MLB

Tiered Bankroll System

Tier 1: Conservative plays (50% of bankroll) Tier 2: Standard plays (40% of bankroll) Tier 3: Speculative plays (10% of bankroll)

Unit sizing:

• Tier 1: 1% units
• Tier 2: 2% units
• Tier 3: 5% units

Bankroll Cycling

Don't bet your entire bankroll at once.

Strategy:

• Only have 50% in play at any time
• Keep 50% in reserve
• Rotate as bets settle

Why:

• Reduces risk
• Preserves capital for next week
• Prevents tilt

Common Bankroll Mistakes

❌ Betting with scared money (can't afford to lose) ❌ No stop-loss limits (betting until broke) ❌ Increasing bets after losses (chasing) ❌ Never adjusting unit size (static units on growing bankroll) ❌ All-in bets (YOLO mentality)

✅ Only bet what you can afford to lose ✅ Set daily/weekly stop-losses ✅ Stick to unit system during streaks ✅ Recalculate units monthly ✅ Max 5% per bet, ideally 1-3%

Bankroll Management Checklist

Before you bet, ask yourself:

• ✅ Is this bet within my unit size?
• ✅ Am I at or below my daily loss limit?
• ✅ Is my bankroll properly funded?
• ✅ Have I tracked my last 10 bets?
• ✅ Am I betting emotionally or logically?

If any answer is NO, don't bet.

The Bottom Line

You can be a 60% winner and still go broke with poor bankroll management.

You can be a 52% winner and profit long-term with proper bankroll management.

Key takeaways:

• Bet 1-5% of bankroll per game
• Use units, not random amounts
• Set stop-loss limits
• Never chase losses
• Recalculate units monthly
• Withdraw profits periodically

Bankroll management is boring, but it's the difference between surviving long enough to profit and going broke in month 1.

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